Is Peña Nieto Facing a Mexican Spring?

Standard

Originally published by Americas Quarterly on December 4th, 2014.

Two years ago, Enrique Peña Nieto took office as Mexico’s president, under the banner of a renovated Partido Revolucionario Institucional(PRI) and with a promise of a brighter economic, social and political future.

Only two months after he took office, Thomas L. Friedman remarked on that promise in an article titled “How Mexico Got Back in the Game.” And who can forget Timemagazine’s February 2014 cover, featuring Peña Nieto with the headline “Saving Mexico”? In that feature, author Michael Crowley said that on the security issues, “alarms are being replaced with applause” and that the social, political and economic reforms package steamrolled through a PRI-dominant Congress were preview of great things to come.

The media prematurely started calling this era “Mexico’s moment.” Granted, we are living quite an interesting moment in Mexico’s history, but not for the reasons the 2012 optimists foresaw.

A recent series of events and decisions stemming from the political elite at local, state and federal levels has detonated into what could evolve into a Mexican version of the Arab Spring. In Friedman’s piece, he quoted the president of Monterrey’s Center for Citizen Integration saying that “Once a citizen feels he is not powerless, he can aspire for more change. […] First, the Web democratized commerce, and then it democratized media, and now it is democratizing democracy.”

This is exactly what’s happening. A newly empowered Mexican civil society is reacting and saying enough is enough.

Some of the things I will discuss in this piece are not making their way to mainstream media, or they are being distorted and minimized, but they are gaining momentum in the open forum of Mexican social media—clearly demonstrating the growing divide between institutions and a fed-up and empowered rebellious citizenry.

The apparent state-sponsored mass murder of 43 rural students from Ayotzinapa was not the result of Peña Nieto’s mandate or decisions. The horrible events occurred in the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD)-run state of Guerrero, and the alleged intellectual authors of the massacre where the now-deposed and incarcerated PRD mayor of Iguala,José Luis Abarca, and his wife.

However, the president’s reaction to the crisis is proving to be more than a challenge for his office. Protesters are holding him accountable and expecting answers from him and only him.

When the massacre reached mass media, political groups in the elite saw it as an opportunity to attack their opponents. Two-time presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador called for Peña Nieto’s resignation, saying the president was not equipped to deal with the Ayotzinapa case. The PRI apparatus returned the blow, flooding the Web with a picture of Abarca and López Obrador hugging during a political rally and arguing that the two politicians were not only members of the same political party, but close friends and political allies.

While this game of political finger-pointing was going on, the families of the 43 students—and, quite frankly, most Mexicans—were more interested in what the federal government was doing to advance the investigation and to deliver credible results.

When days turned into months and the public still had no answers, two incidents collided and became a perfect storm for the president.

On November 7, 33 days after the Ayotzinapa students disappeared, Attorney General Jesús Murillo Karam gave a press conference in which he declared that the students’ bodies had been thrown in a mass grave and cremated, citing confessions from local gang members as evidence. Families of the students, who had expected empathy and hope, were instead subjected to a crude account of how their loved ones had been abducted, transported, tortured, maimed and murdered.

Murillo continued to share testimonies of apprehended criminals, describing the way the bodies were doused with gasoline and set ablaze. At the conclusion of the press conference, Murillo dodged questions challenging the credibility of his statements, only to abruptly end the session by getting up from his chair and murmuring “I’ve had enough” (Ya me cansé).

Though Murillo later said that his words were an expression of his frustration with the violence, #Yamecansé immediately became a trending topic on Twitter. Enraged Mexicans shouted they, too, had had enough of the political elite, of organized crime in bed with the government, and of being lied to and patronized.

The second PR disaster came two days later, when journalist Carmen Aristegui uncovered acase of alleged corruption and nepotism involving Peña Nieto’s wife, Angélica Rivera. Aristegui revealed that the construction company Grupo Higa, which had won a  multimillion dollar bid to construct a high-speed rail project in the PRI-governed state of Nuevo León, had also built Rivera’s now famous $7 million “Casa Blanca” mansion.

As if the Casa Blanca accusation wasn’t bad enough, Peña Nieto decided not to directly respond to it. Instead, the strategy from the president’s office was to have the First Lady provide an explanation, in a failed attempt to put distance between the accusation and the president.  The Rivera’s nonsensical YouTube video explanation of how she came to possess enough money to buy the house through acting in telenovelas, created an outcry on social media, showing that nobody bought the First Lady’s explanation. Instead, the video became yet another symbol of the effrontery with which the political class approaches their constituency, stirring up frustration and indignation.

The #Yamecansé and #CasaBlanca hashtags sparked massive social mobilizations and marches in the state of Guerrero, in Mexico City and in major cities across the country and abroad. Some have compared these mass protests with the #YoSoy132 movement of 2012.

The similarity between the two movements is the fact that Peña Nieto is the main target of criticis—but it would be more accurate to compare the current movement with the Arab Spring. #YoSoy132 was fueled by electoral politics, with the goal of preventing Peña Nieto from winning office. After Peña Nieto was elected, the movement did not die completely, but it became more symbolic than effective.

Today, enraged and politically alienated youth are amassing in a more organic way, and their reasons for protesting will not dissipate after electoral polls close. Local, state and federal incompetence and corruption have created more reasons than ever for people to take to the streets and demand a change.

There is no sign of this trend reversing. In fact, all strategies used by the government to tackle the protests only seem to aggravate them.  With accusations of police beating up and arresting peaceful protesters, Peña Nieto’s presentation of a security reformthat would unify local police forces was met with skepticism. The spokesperson for the relatives of the Ayotzinapa victims called the measure “like his words—false,” and a move by Mexico’s lower house of Congress to revise rules on social mobilization (Senate approval pending) was received as a threat to freedom of speech and freedom of movement.

Why aren’t these strategies working? In part, because they were the wrong solutions to begin with. In his recent op-ed in El Economista, the founder and president of the Mexican think tank Instituto de Pensamiento Estratégico Ágora A.C. (IPEA ), Armando Regil Velasco, identified the root cause of the prolonged problem:

“When your moral authority is so fragile, it doesn’t matter what you say. Skepticism will impose itself and little to nothing will be believable. [The Federal government] lacks honesty, courage and determination.”

The Mexican political elite, with Peña Nieto heading the list, has lost whatever  trust the citizenry once had in them. The phrase “more crooked than a politician” has risen to new heights in today’s Mexico, and those brave enough to mobilize are finding more and more reasons to do so as more cases of corruption and inadequacy develop.

After two years of Peña Nieto’s government and with the current social chaos the country is facing, I wonder where those 2012 notions of “Saving Mexico,” “Mexico’s moment” and “getting back in the game” have ended up. The best place to look for them is probably in the gutter.

¿Por quién votarías?

Standard

Hay muchos factores que determinan el voto de una persona en las elecciones presidenciales. Los factores son distintos para cada quién y tienen diferentes pesos.

En México hay quienes votan por el candidato y por su percepción de su “calidad humana” (sí, entre comillas porque la atribución a calidad humana de todo político que llega a estar en nivel de competir por un puesto de elección popular en México tendría que estar en tela de juicio).

Otros votan por la plataforma o proyecto de cierto candidato. Los que siguen esta vía generalmente acaban decepcionados al medir promesa contra mandato. Los políticos mexicanos son especialistas en promesas incumplidas.

Otros más favorecen a un partido en particular, ya que se sienten ideológicamente identificados con los valores que lo respaldan teóricamente. O en el peor de los casos los que votan por partido lo hacen “porque me gustan sus colores”.

Hay un grupo más que vota por “el menos peor”, evaluando implicaciones de la llegada de un candidato versus otro, la composición del Congreso con el que le tocará convivir y atendiendo fobias respecto a lo que sucedería en torno a un voto útil y sus intenciones de que cierto candidato no llegue al poder.

Y así como éstas, hay muchísimas más razones por las que definimos nuestro voto.

El día de hoy estuve pensando mucho en el momento político, económico y social por el que pasa México y me surgió un cuestionamiento que muchas veces he visto en los medios, pero que hoy más que nunca, me preocupa la conclusión a la que llego para responderlo:

Si las elecciones presidenciales fueran el día de hoy, ¿por quién votarías?

Me tocó ver los aciertos y desaciertos de dos Presidentes del PAN. Fui testigo de cómo desaprovecharon su ventana en el poder y no fueron capaces de contrarrestar o negociar con Congresos en los que no tenían mayoría. Vi la miopía detrás de su administración de una supuesta guerra contra las drogas y la manera en que el crimen organizado los superó sin vuelta atrás. No los culpo por la manera en que recibieron el país tras más de 70 años en los que más que pactar con el narco, se co-gobernó con él. Los culpo por su inhabilidad de transicionar a un modelo en que no nos diera miedo cruzar la puerta de nuestras casas. Me tocó ver cómo al ser derrotado y abrirle la puerta de regreso a la bestia, en lugar de reagruparse y armar una estrategia de concentración y fortalecimiento, el PAN se desmoronó al punto de que hoy no tiene un líder que pudiera considerar ni candidato ni presidenciable.

Me tocó ver al viejo PRI y al nuevo PRI. Me tocó ver la forma en que hoy “disentir” es una palabra prohibida en el Gobierno Federal. Me tocó ver el regreso y la exacerbación de viejos vicios y toxicidades de nuestra nación de antaño. Me tocó la dictadura perfecta reloaded y los escándalos con sus respectivos deslindes. Me tocó ver la represión en manos de un grupo que ha sabido estirar la liga y faltarle completamente al respeto a las personas que gobierna, llevándolas al punto del hartazgo y la frustración. Me tocó ver a este partido sembrando en las nuevas generaciones un nivel de alienación, resignación y rechazo al quehacer político que genera una completa desconexión e incapacidad de trabajo conjunto efectivo entre sociedad civil y autoridades.  Me tocó conocer niveles de descaro que no sabía existían en la condición humana.

Me tocó ver a un líder moral de un partido de izquierda decirle a su actual Comité Ejecutivo que debería renunciar y que su partido ya no sirve. Me tocó ver cómo de dicho partido emanaron personas que hoy son señaladas en Guerrero y Morelia como criminales y la irresponsable respuesta institucional a dichos señalamientos por parte del partido que los llevó al poder. Me tocó ver cómo al dejar de ser opción viable, uno de los mayores bastiones del PRD, hambriento y embriagado por su sueño de poder, decidió fundar un nuevo modelo de idolatría a su persona y propagar un discurso gastado y destructivo. Me tocó ver cómo el romanticismo detrás del pensamiento de izquierda hoy se traduce a facciones descarriadas, que aspiran a provocar mayor caos e inestabilidad con el único propósito de hacer así más probable su llegada al poder, por regla de eliminación.

Me toca ver los gritos y reclamos por justicia, así como las exigencias de renuncia al actual mandatario. Y no es que quiera que renuncie o que no renuncie esa persona por la que no voté y no votamos la mayoría de los mexicanos (con o sin fraude o monederos Monex).  El mayor problema es que HOY, buscando dentro del espectro partidista, simplemente no veo ni partidos ni posibles candidatos ni figuras presidenciables. Hoy en la clase política de México, ni siquiera encuentro al “menos peor.” Si las elecciones presidenciales fueran el día de hoy, ¿por quién votarías? POR NADIE.

Sí, sí me dueles México. Exactamente tres chingos.

Pero el bono sexenal nunca se traspapela…

Standard

NOTA PUBLICADA HOY EN ELNORTE.COM, comentarios personales entre corchetes.

Dejan San Lázaro dándose regalazo

Cd. de México  (1 de junio 2012).- Los siete grupos parlamentarios que integran la Cámara de Diputados [No el PRI, no el PAN, no el PRD. TODOS] se repartieron un regalo de fin de legislatura por 230.3 millones de pesos, cuya distribución en cada una de las bancadas se hará a discreción.

De esta bolsa, al PRI, como partido mayoritario, le tocarán 98.5 millones de pesos; al PAN 60.5, al PRD 32, al Partido Verde 14, al PT 10.3, al Panal 7.7 y a Movimiento Ciudadano 7.3 millones.

El monto de 230.3 millones es una asignación extra integrada a las partidas de “subvenciones”, fijas y variables, que se dan a los partidos políticos y cuya comprobación de gasto se hace sólo con la firma del coordinador parlamentario, o quien él designe, sin que tengan la obligación de justificar en qué se gastaron los recursos [QUE HUEVOTES, ¿NO?].

En este caso, el argumento para entregar los recursos fue que se necesitaba apoyar las “labores legislativas” [¿CUALES?] de las bancadas , cuando ya no hay actividad parlamentaria en la Cámara baja, y para saldar el finiquito de los trabajadores de cada fracción.

 
El coordinador de los diputados del PAN, Carlos Alberto Pérez Cuevas, señaló que ignoraba la aplicación de los montos entregados a su fracción porque tomó el cargo a fines de abril, y la autorización de los mismos se hizo en febrero y marzo, cuando el coordinador era Francisco Ramírez Acuña.

“Sobre cuántos empleados se van o no se van, ese es un tema de mayor detalle, (por) que todavía no ha acabado la Legislatura”, manifestó.

Cuestionado sobre el tema, el vicecoordinador del PRI, José Ramón Martel, dijo desconocer el destino del dinero y cuántos empleados hay en su fracción.

“No te puedo contestar en cuanto a datos específicos del número del personal, no soy el director de personal de la Cámara, no soy el administrativo de mi fracción”, dijo.

Heliodoro Díaz, Diputado del PRI e integrante del Comité de Administración, explicó que la referencia a atender pasivos labores en las bancadas se refiere a los finiquitos del personal que durante los tres años laboró para cada fracción parlamentaria.

Sin embargo, el legislador no respondió cuántos empleados en total serán liquidados, e incluso dijo desconocer cuántas personas serán liquidadas en la bancada del PRI. [En síntesis, aquí nadie vio, nadie supo. Que rápido aprenden de nuestros candidatos presidenciales a deslindarse de todo…]

¿El efecto QuadriNader?

Standard

En el 2000, Ralph Nader fue candidato presidencial en Estados Unidos por una coalición de partidos verdes. Ese fue el año del controvertido resultado en la contienda que llevó a cuestionar el sistema de colegio electoral en Estados Unidos y acabó poniendo a George W. Bush en la presidencia. Era evidente que Nader no tenía posibilidades de ser elegido PERO su participación sí fue instrumental para (sin que fuera su objetivo) quitarle votos a Al Gore y poner en evidencia una vez más, lo poderoso que puede ser el razonamiento del “voto útil”. De haber sido una batalla entre dos candidatos solamente, Gore no sólo hubiera obtenido la mayoría del voto popular sino también la presidencia.

Ayer presenciamos el primer debate presidencial de las elecciones del 2012 en México. Aunque fue entretenido en su momento, no quiero meterme en los siguientes temas a profundidad (por ahora):

  • La edecarne Playmate del IFE
  • El formato pobre en términos de tiempos y sistema de elección de preguntas
  • La pésima producción del programa
  • La marihuana que parecía haberse fumado la presentadora Lupita
  • Las pobres elecciones en corbata de 2 de los candidatos

Esto es lo que sí quisiera discutir:

Prácticamente todos los medios y redes sociales están repartiendo puntos positivos entre Quadri y Vázquez Mota. Aparentemente quien más provecho le sacó al ejercicio fue Gabriel Quadri, que se pone después de un par de horas de argumentos y propuestas, en el mapa electoral. No, Gabriel Quadri no será Presidente PERO ayer sí ocurrieron un par de cosas que vale la pena considerar:

  • Es muy probable que el PANAL mantenga su registro. De ser así, el intelectual habrá hecho su chamba y la maestra estará muy agradecida.
  • Los jovenes que habían perdido esperanza en la contienda regresarán a las urnas para darle su voto al “candidato hipster.” Creo que su mayor apoyo vendrá de personas que de otra manera no hubieran votado o hubieran anulado su voto que de gente que haya cambiado de candidato preferido.
  • La composición porcentual del resultado en las elecciones habrá cambiado significativamente ya que probablemente Quadri superará el estimado de 1% de los votos.
  • Quadri tiene garantizado un futuro político si quisiera tomar la opción. Con o sin el PANAL, el candidato mostró madera para tener posibilidades de ganar una posición en la Cámara de Diputados o hasta el Senado.

Nadie puede negar que la estrategia de Quadri funcionó. Es cierto, es más fácil ser el candidato al que nadie va a pelar ni atacar cuando estás en un debate… pero en las elecciones pasadas Roberto Campa estaba en una situación similar y no la supo aprovechar. En lo personal Quadri no me impresionó pero puedo entender por qué a muchos sí. Fue uno de dos candidatos que trajo propuestas a la mesa en lugar de palabras vacías. Entre los cuatro es definitivamente el más elocuente y al no tener trayectoria política pasada, no tiene cola que le pisen.

Despúes de lo que vimos anoche, la verdader pregunta interesante es: ¿será la participación de Quadri una versión mexicana del efecto Nader y de ser así, a cuál de los otros candidatos le perjudica más su éxito en el debate de ayer?

Estimados y siempre valorados visitantes de este espacio, ¿qué piensan al respecto?

De antemano les agradezco su participación y compartir este post para que tengamos buena muestra en esta discusión.

The Credibility Vacuum: Mexico’s 2012 Presidential Race

Standard

Here is a link to my latest article on AQBlog, titled “The Credibility Vacuum: Mexico’s 2012 Presidential Race” , published on Nov 28th, 2011. Please feel free to visit and comment.

Here is a verbatim copy of it in case you prefer to read it on my personal blog, though I recommend actually going to the site because of additional content, other blogger’s articles, etc.

—-

No matter the outcome, Mexico’s next president will not have the needed credentials to effectively run this country and neither will the majority parties that compose Congress. Mexico’s political system has entered a credibility vacuum.

These first lines sound fatalist but the real intention here is to prepare and alert the Mexican citizenry of the ever-present need of their active involvement in placing the country on the right track. It has always been simplistic to leave this up to the government and now more than ever, it will be futile to think they would be able to at a federal level.

The 2012 presidential race in Mexico will have three relevant frontrunners: Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI), Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD) and if the most recent polls stay the same until February, Josefina Vázquez Mota for PAN.

Vázquez Mota is facing an upstream battle. Of the three, she is the candidate with the least experience, the least media exposure and she has never occupied a publicly-elected government position. Moreover, she carries with her allegiance to a party which in the eyes of many, has failed to capitalize on the democratic transition. The political cost of Vicente Fox’ dormant presidency and Felipe Calderón’s war on drugs-related fatalities puts her in the worst position to win the race. Recent state elections in Estado de México, Coahuila, Nayarit, and Michoacán where the PRI came out victorious, foreshadow PAN’s likely inability to maintain the presidency after 2012. On the off-chance that she could pull it off, Vázquez Mota would govern with a PRI-majority Congress, which most likely would hinder her ability to put forth any relevant changes (same as what happened to Vicente Fox). Vázquez Mota may be the right woman for the job, but she’s in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Though López Obrador’s abandoning of his divisive rhetoric from 2006 gained him a second attempt at the presidency from leftist parties (against my forecasting, I might add), today his flip-flopping positions make him the least credible candidate. His impeachment when he headed the Mexico City government, his irresponsible indebting of the city for his populist gains and his sketchy financing for the past five years make his track record and his current platform incompatible. Moreover, those with a bit of memory will not forgive his utter disregard for the rule of law during the last post-electoral period. 

In the last elections Calderón was able to beat López not because of votes for the PAN candidate but because Calderón was perceived as the “useful vote” for people who wanted to keep a radical López out of the presidency at all costs.  Ironically, with the PAN’s current weak position and López’ confrontational delivery toning down, in 2012 he will likely be the recipient of many anti-PRI votes, possibly enough to get him to power.

If this is the case, Mexico will have yet another demagogue as president; one who has promised too much to too many divergent interest groups in order to try to get a critical mass of support; he will face a real challenge in being able to deliver. His bold statements on creating “a Republic of Love,” getting the armed forces off the streets in six months and creating 4 million jobs in six weeks have been called irresponsible by respected analysts. Add to this the fact that like Vázquez, his every move would most likely be blocked by a PRI Congress.

The third player is Enrique Peña Nieto, the custom-built candidate from the PRI. Called out by López as a “junk-food candidate,” he currently has the favored standing position to win the presidency, though it will most likely end up being a very close race.

Peña’s slick young look and his recent marriage to soap opera star Angélica Rivera equate the couple to the Ken and Barbie of Mexican politics. But what does Peña represent? For one, the return of a party where over 70 years of absolute rule is considered by many the root cause of the current organized crime proliferation in the country. PRI has been gaining ground at a state and municipal level under the banner of “we did know how to govern” and “we controlled (co-opted) the narcos” because citizens have not been able to grasp the benefits of a transition in power and they are tired of the war on drugs.

Related to this, President Calderón has been candid in warning Mexico of the possibility of collusion between drug lords and the PRI should they regain power. As recent allegations of organized crime intrusions favoring PRI in elections in Michoacán show, Calderón’s warnings may not be so far-fetched. Peña Nieto’s candidacy is also tainted by the fact that he will run under a coalition with the PANAL (Partido Nuevo Alianza) supported by Elba Esther Gordillo, president of the SNTE, the combatant teacher’s union and one of Mexico’s most despised political characters.  Rumors of Carlos Salinas de Gortari backing Peña’s candidacy and accusations of Peña’s involvement in the death of his first wife, Monica Petrelini, also warn us of the return of the PRI of old. In addition, TV media moguls and other oligarchs will side with Peña Nieto in order to push him into Los Pinos.

In laymen’s terms Mexicans will have a choice in 2012 to vote for the woman who can’t win, the demagogue who can’t deliver or the pretty boy with shady friends.  In Mexico we are used to voting for the lesser of evils but this time it might be the hardest choice of all.  Given the current scenario, the real challenge will be for the rest of the relevant actors (private enterprise, NGOs, special interest groups, media, universities, trustworthy state and municipal authorities, etc.) to build and achieve progress in spite of the credibility vacuum at the top of the government… and hope for a better race in 2018.

*Arjan Shahani is a contributing blogger to AmericasQuarterly.org. He lives in Monterrey, Mexico, and is an MBA graduate from Thunderbird University and Tecnológico de Monterrey and a member of the International Advisory Board of Global Majority—an international non-profit organization dedicated to the promotion of non-violent conflict resolution.

Michoacan is gonna be a mess…

Standard

With 22.56% of the votes tallied, the Michoacán elections show a technical tie between the PRI and PAN candidates, with the PRD candidate not far behind. It’s almost a 30/30/30 split and the three of them have already declared themselves winners.

Just as the voting booths opened this morning, some of the parties involved were already screaming about fraud taking place. More than 40 arrests have occurred in relation to attempts to manipulate voting processes, plus we have the fact that the electoral authority’s website was hacked while the elections were taking place. The IEM declared that the vote tallying system was not affected by the attack but these days, can you really trust them?

Here’s what’s gonna happen in the next hours:

100% of the votes will be counted and they will show a very very close race between the PRI and PAN candidates, probably with the PRI candidate as the first place, with less than 2% of a difference. The PRD candidate will have lagged behind but that won’t stop him from claiming victory.

All three candidates will maintain that they won and none of them will back down. They will then start declaring that certain booths were compromised so a bunch of them will be cancelled out. Even after that, we will still have no clear winner. This will end up in the courts and in all likelihood, the PRI will be declared winner. PRD will take to the streets screaming “fraud” once more and either Ebrard or López Obrador will use this case as leverage for the presidential race. They will hold that PRI stole the election and use this to tarnish the PRI’s already dirty image. Cocoa Calderón will fade into the background. 

It’s going to be quite a mess and it’s never going to be about the will of the Michoacanos.

Viva México.